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  • Essay / The importance of crude oil - 1244

    Since the mid-20th century, due to the exceptional importance of crude oil in supplying the world's energy demand, it has become one of the main indicators of the global economic activity. . Even after the emergence of alternative forms of energy like solar, water and wind, the importance of crude oil as a primary source of energy still cannot be denied. This sharp increase in global oil prices and exchange rate volatility are generally considered to be the factors discouraging economic growth. In particular, the very recent peaks recorded in the global oil market raise fears of a possible slowdown in economic growth, both in developed and developing countries. A large number of researchers have proposed that exchange rate volatility and oil price fluctuations have far-reaching consequences on real economic activities. . The impact of fluctuating oil prices is expected to differ between oil exporting and importing countries. An increase in the price of oil should be considered bad news for oil-importing countries and good news for oil-exporting countries, while the opposite is to be expected when the price of oil falls. Through the transmission mechanism of supply and demand, oil prices impact real economic activity. Secondary supply effects are associated with the fact that crude oil is a basic input to production, and an increase in the price of oil leads to an increase in production costs, which ultimately results in a decrease in the production of companies. Changes in oil prices also lead to demand effects on investment and consumption. Consumption is also affected indirectly by its positive relationship with disposable income. Additionally, oil prices negatively impact investment by increasing business costs. On the other side...... middle of paper ...... the least compared to the others, because its indigenous production covers a greater part of its oil needs therefore its GDP only drops by 0, 3%. Japan's GDP would decrease by 0.4%. This analysis assumes constant exchange rates and economic growth for the U.S. economy. The present article is an extension of the existing empirical literature in two directions. First, we did not focus only on the oil-importing US economy, but rather analyzed the effects of an oil price shock in two different types of countries, including five oil-exporting countries, namely Saudi Arabia, Norway, Venezuela, Kuwait, Nigeria and five oil exporting countries. importing countries namely Pakistan, India, China, Japan and Germany. Second, we will not only demonstrate the relationship between oil prices and real economic growth, but also analyze the role of real exchange rate in real economic growth..